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<p>List of Illustrations & Diagrams xvii</p> <p>List of Images xix</p> <p><b>Part I The Elements of Techno-Nationalism 1</b></p> <p>Introduction: My China Lessons 3</p> <p>Three Important Lessons 5</p> <p>The Origins of This Book 9</p> <p><b>Chapter 1 Techno-Nationalism 11</b></p> <p>The Power of the State 14</p> <p>The Great Reorganisation 17</p> <p>The Great Bifurcation 19</p> <p>Paradoxes and Contradictions 21</p> <p>A Steady Shift Towards Decoupling 22</p> <p>States and Firms in a Grey Zone 24</p> <p>The Big Questions 27</p> <p>Overview of Sections and Chapters 29</p> <p><b>Chapter 2 The Technology Feedback Loop 31</b></p> <p>Early International Talent Wars 32</p> <p>Early British Export Controls 33</p> <p>History’s Technology Feedback Loop 34</p> <p>The Dutch Seafaring Technologies 39</p> <p>Techno-Nationalism and the Four Industrial Revolutions 41</p> <p>Physics and Chemistry Wars 42</p> <p>Computers, Atomic Bombs and a Space Race 44</p> <p>The Manhattan Project 46</p> <p>The Third Industrial Revolution (3IR) 47</p> <p>China’s 4IR Feedback Loop 49</p> <p><b>Chapter 3 Paradigm Shift and Paradox 51</b></p> <p>Paradigm Shift Becomes Policy 52</p> <p>CEOs versus Techno-Nationalists 56</p> <p>The Wicked Paradox 59</p> <p><b>Chapter 4 The In-China-for-China Grey Zone 63</b></p> <p>Welcome to the Grey Zone 63</p> <p>The Traditional ‘In-China-for-China’ Model 67</p> <p>China’s Tech Subsidies: From TVs to EVs 67</p> <p>China’s Anti-Espionage Laws 70</p> <p><b>Chapter 5 De-Risking and Decoupling 75</b></p> <p>Stratified Global Value Chains 77</p> <p>States versus Firms 79</p> <p>The Ukraine War, De-Risking and Decoupling 80</p> <p>Decoupling from Russia 81</p> <p>De-risking and Decoupling from China 82</p> <p>China’s De-Americanisation Long Game 84</p> <p><b>Chapter 6 Export Controls 85</b></p> <p>Export Controls in the Modern Era 87</p> <p>Blacklisted Entities 90</p> <p>Extraterritoriality 91</p> <p>Workarounds, Loopholes and Backdoors 94</p> <p>High Approval Rates, Long Grace Periods and Binge-Buying 95</p> <p>Cloud Access, Third-Party Backdoors and Black Markets 97</p> <p>A Revamped, Multilateral Export Control Regime 99</p> <p><b>Chapter 7 Semiconductor Ground Zero 103</b></p> <p>Chip-Centric Geopolitics 104</p> <p>What are Semiconductors? 105</p> <p>Semiconductor Global Value Chains 107</p> <p>Moore’s Law 108</p> <p>Chip-Manufacturing Choke Points 111</p> <p>Packaging 117</p> <p>Rationalised Supply Chains 118</p> <p><b>Chapter 8 China’s Semiconductor Problem 121</b></p> <p>Trailing-Edge Chips 123</p> <p>Leading-Edge Chips 125</p> <p>China’s False-Positive Chip Test 127</p> <p>The Road Behind and Ahead 129</p> <p><b>Chapter 9 Re shoring Chip Manufacturing to America 133</b></p> <p>The CHIPS and Science Act 134</p> <p>CHIPS and the Trailing-Edge Revolution 138</p> <p>Challenges, Scepticism and Assumptions 140</p> <p><b>Part II Undercurrents and Power-Multipliers 145</b></p> <p><b>Chapter 10 The War Against Huawei 147</b></p> <p>The Three Points of Reference 150</p> <p>The Supermicro Antecedent 150</p> <p>America’s Historic Telecoms-Espionage Monopoly 151</p> <p>Senate Investigations into U.S. Telecoms and Spy Agencies 152</p> <p>China’s Brand of Economic-Techno-Nationalism 154</p> <p>State-Backed Cheap Credit for Emerging Markets 156</p> <p>Huawei and China’s Digital Belt and Road Initiative 157</p> <p>How the Neoliberal Model Backfired with Huawei 159</p> <p>Huawei and the Quest for Chip Self-Sufficiency 160</p> <p><b>Chapter 11 Tradecraft, Stealth and Technology 165</b></p> <p>The Distractions of the U.S. War on Terror 166</p> <p>The Technology that found Bin Laden 168</p> <p>The Technology that Killed Bin Laden 170</p> <p>Chinese Tradecraft and Helicopter Stealth Technology 171</p> <p>Operation ‘Byzantine Hades’ 172</p> <p>Fifth-Generation Fighter Jets 174</p> <p>Skunkworks Legacy Feedback Loop Meets China Tradecraft 176</p> <p>A New ‘Stealth’ Innovation Race Driven by AI 178</p> <p>The Rise of the Drones 179</p> <p><b>Chapter 12 Data, Biotech and Geopolitics 181</b></p> <p>The Elements of Data Geopolitics 183</p> <p>What is Data and Why is it Important? 185</p> <p>Techno-Authoritarianism and Surveillance Capitalism 185</p> <p>Genetic Data and National Security 186</p> <p>The Biosecurity–Genome Technology Feedback Loop 187</p> <p>Pharmacogenomics and Techno-Nationalism 188</p> <p>Data Capitalism in the Digital Commons 190</p> <p>User-Generated Content 190</p> <p>Original Data Suppliers 191</p> <p>The Human Genome and Data Capitalism 192</p> <p>American Sci-Tech Data Hegemony 193</p> <p>Data Intermediaries 194</p> <p>The Different Regulatory Landscapes Around the World 195</p> <p>Data Geopolitics, Soft Power and Information Wars 196</p> <p>The Cambridge Analytica Milestone 196</p> <p>How Data Analytics Shape the Geopolitical Landscape 197</p> <p>Russian Influence Campaigns in Social Media 198</p> <p>The Spread of Information Wars 199</p> <p>Social Media Influencers and Bloggers 200</p> <p>Platform Diplomacy 201</p> <p>Intelligence Agencies Relying on Private Companies 202</p> <p>Government Demands for Data Access 203</p> <p><b>Chapter 13 The AI Arms Race 205</b></p> <p>AI Designs a Breakthrough Drug 207</p> <p>AI and the Weapons of War 208</p> <p>AI and Cyberwarfare 210</p> <p>AI Superpowers: The U.S. versus China 212</p> <p>AI Misinformation, Deepfakes and Narrative Wars 215</p> <p>AI and Chip Wars 216</p> <p><b>Chapter 14 Quantum Technologies 219</b></p> <p>What is Quantum Computing and Why does it Matter? 221</p> <p>Quantum Supremacy and Limitations 223</p> <p>Quantum Technologies and Techno-Nationalism 225</p> <p>Potential Sectors and Practical Applications of Quantum Computing 226</p> <p>Reinventing Public Key Cryptography 228</p> <p>Patent Filings as a Benchmark 230</p> <p>Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) 230</p> <p>The Race Between Companies 231</p> <p>Techno-Nationalism and the Future of Quantum Technologies 232</p> <p>Export Controls and Ring-fencing of Strategic Ecosystems 233</p> <p>Techno-Diplomacy and Quantum Technology 234</p> <p>Quantum Ethics, Standards and Rules 234</p> <p><b>Chapter 15 Hypersonic Speed 237</b></p> <p>China’s Hypersonic Technology Snapshot 238</p> <p>‘Carrier Killer’ Missiles 240</p> <p>The Role of AI 242</p> <p>The DARPA Answer 244</p> <p><b>Chapter 16 The Great Undersea Cable Decoupling 247</b></p> <p>Geopolitics, Data and Undersea Cables 248</p> <p>The Technology and Competitors 252</p> <p>Techno-Diplomacy and Undersea Cables 253</p> <p>The SEA-ME-WE-6 254</p> <p>States and Firms in the Grey Zone 255</p> <p>Cable Sabotage and Warfare 256</p> <p><b>Chapter 17 Space-Based Internet 259</b></p> <p>Trends in Satellite Technology and Space-Geopolitics 260</p> <p>Low Earth Orbit Satellites 261</p> <p>A Revolution in Smallsat Technology and Manufacturing 262</p> <p>SpaceX and the Rocket Revolution 263</p> <p>The Militarisation of Space-Based Internet 264</p> <p>The Grey Zone: Blurring the Line between Defence and Commerce 265</p> <p>Export Controls, Sanctions and Bifurcated Global Value Chains 266</p> <p>Starlink Internet and the Russia–Ukraine War 267</p> <p>Lethal Eyes, Ears and the Drone Revolution 269</p> <p>Open-Sourced War in the Digital Global Commons 269</p> <p>The Grey Zone: State versus Firms 270</p> <p>The Rise of Space Monopolies 272</p> <p>A Multilateral Rules Framework for Space? 272</p> <p><b>Chapter 18 The Twenty-First-Century Space Race 275</b></p> <p>The Commercialisation of Space 277</p> <p>The New Space Markets 278</p> <p>Emerging Space Industries 279</p> <p>Space Robots 281</p> <p>The Rise and Rise of SpaceX 282</p> <p>Semiconductors and the Twenty-First-Century Space Race 286</p> <p>Neolibs versus Techno-Nationalists 288</p> <p>Tech Start-Ups 290</p> <p>The Militarisation of Space 292</p> <p>The Bifurcation of Space Research 294</p> <p>De-Risking Aerospace Global Supply Chains 295</p> <p>Re-Shoring 297</p> <p>Space Blocs 298</p> <p><b>Chapter 19 Drones, Robots and Autonomous Weapons 301</b></p> <p>The Rise of the Machines 302</p> <p>Inflection Points 303</p> <p>The Russia–Ukraine War 304</p> <p>Turkish and Iranian Drones 304</p> <p>Kamikaze in a Backpack 306</p> <p>The Shift to Lethal Autonomous Weapons 307</p> <p>The Ethical Dilemma of Lethal Autonomous Systems 311</p> <p><b>Part III Climate, Cleantech and Agritech 313</b></p> <p><b>Chapter 20 Climate Change and Geopolitics 315</b></p> <p>The Geopolitics of Energy Infrastructure 317</p> <p>The Cleantech Arena 318</p> <p>Climate Competition in Emerging Markets 318</p> <p>China’s Infrastructure-For-Resources Deals 320</p> <p>Values-Driven Infrastructure Projects 321</p> <p>Multilateral Infrastructure Alliances 322</p> <p>The Digital Infrastructure Nexus 324</p> <p>China’s Island-Building Diplomacy 326</p> <p><b>Chapter 21 The Geopolitics of Electric Vehicles 329</b></p> <p>The Core Areas of EV Techno-Nationalism 330</p> <p>Twenty-First-Century Electrification of the Automotive Industry 331</p> <p>New Regulations and Funding 332</p> <p>The EV Ecosystem and Composition of EVs 333</p> <p>The Simplicity of Electric Motors 334</p> <p>China: EV Techno-Nationalist Ground-Zero 335</p> <p>China’s Dominance of Rare Earth Materials 336</p> <p>Accelerated Decoupling in Rare Earths Supply Chains 337</p> <p>The Re-shoring and Ring-fencing of Rare Earths 338</p> <p>China’s Dominance of Lithium-ion Batteries and Related Supply Chains 339</p> <p>Critical Components and Minerals 340</p> <p>The Geographic Ring-fencing of Li-ion Battery Production 340</p> <p>A Story of China’s EV Battery Techno-Nationalism 341</p> <p>Forced Reliance on Chinese Suppliers 342</p> <p>America and Europe’s EV Subsidies, Initiatives and Techno-Nationalist Road Map 343</p> <p>U.S. EV Techno-Diplomacy 343</p> <p>Emerging EV Fragmentation and Clusters 344</p> <p><b>Chapter 22 Semiconductors and Electric Vehicle Wars 347</b></p> <p>The Blurring of Automotive and Technology Companies 348</p> <p>The Challenges of ‘Dual-use’ EV Technologies 349</p> <p>Cross-Border Microchip Innovation 350</p> <p>Foreign Venture Capital in a Geopolitical Context 351</p> <p>An EV Software and Hardware Open Platform 352</p> <p>Silicon Carbide and Gallium Nitrogen Chips 353</p> <p>Connected Cars and National Security Risks 354</p> <p>Subsidies for the EV–Semiconductor Nexus 355</p> <p>The Road Ahead 356</p> <p><b>Chapter 23 Food Security and Techno-Nationalism 357</b></p> <p>Food Protectionism on the Rise 358</p> <p>The ‘Friend-shoring’ of Food Supply Chains 359</p> <p>Technology and Food Security 360</p> <p>Precision Agriculture 362</p> <p>Vertical Farming 363</p> <p>Laboratory-grown Protein 364</p> <p>Agritech and Industrial Espionage 364</p> <p>Water Scarcity and Technology 366</p> <p>The Geopolitics of Water Scarcity 366</p> <p><b>Part IV Innovation, Academia, Alliances and Diplomacy 369</b></p> <p><b>Chapter 24 Techno-Nationalism on Campus 371</b></p> <p>The Changing Academic Landscape 373</p> <p>Academic Ring-Fencing 374</p> <p>Middle-Country Universities 375</p> <p>Student Nationalities 376</p> <p>China’s Thousand Talents Programme and Academic Espionage 377</p> <p>Rule Frameworks and Research Security 379</p> <p>Screening the Sources of Funding 380</p> <p>The Military and Academia 382</p> <p><b>Chapter 25 Chip Schools 385</b></p> <p>Purdue’s Silicon Moment 386</p> <p>The Rise of the National Chip Hubs 388</p> <p>Chip School West: Arizona State University 389</p> <p>Academic Cross Border Friend-Shoring 391</p> <p>Taiwan’s Global Talent Development Strategy 393</p> <p>A Worldwide Shortage of Talent 394</p> <p><b>Chapter 26 The Innovation Horse Race 397</b></p> <p>Government Activism: Why it Matters 399</p> <p>Public–Private Partnerships 400</p> <p>R&D and the Paradigm Shift 402</p> <p>Milestones of Chinese Techno-Nationalism 404</p> <p>A Brief Reflection on the Benefits of Industrial Policy 405</p> <p>Japan 406</p> <p>Taiwan 407</p> <p>Germany 408</p> <p>The Origins of America’s Chip Policies 410</p> <p><b>Chapter 27 India Rising? 413</b></p> <p>India’s Fertile Economy and Technology Landscape 415</p> <p>Accelerated Decoupling from China 416</p> <p>India’s Digital Landscape 417</p> <p>Software and Engineering Research & Development (ER&D) 419</p> <p>The Pain-of-Doing-Business in India 420</p> <p>Smartphones and Geopolitical Influence 422</p> <p>Building World-class Clusters with Local Manufacturers 423</p> <p>Printed Circuit Board Assembly and Semiconductors 424</p> <p><b>Chapter 28 Fragmented Finance 427</b></p> <p>Central Bank-backed Digital Currencies 427</p> <p>Ideology and Digital Currency: A Clash of Civilisations 430</p> <p>Digital Dystopia 431</p> <p>New Accounting Standards Aimed at Chinese Companies 433</p> <p>The U.S. Outbound Investment Transparency Act 434</p> <p>International Banks Caught between Beijing and Washington 435</p> <p>China Punishes HSBC 436</p> <p>Techno-Nationalism and FinTech Decoupling 438</p> <p>Sovereign Wealth Funds and Geopolitics 439</p> <p><b>Chapter 29 Techno-Diplomacy and the Road Ahead 441</b></p> <p>From FTAs to Mini-Lateral Arrangements 443</p> <p>The Chip 4 Alliance (Fact or Fiction) 445</p> <p>The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework 447</p> <p>The AUKUS Trilateral Security Agreement 448</p> <p>The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) 450</p> <p>Bilateral Techno-Diplomacy 451</p> <p>AI Ethics and The Promise of Open-Sourced Platforms 452</p> <p>The Great Reorganisation will Go On 455</p> <p>Notes 457</p> <p>Acknowledgements 505</p> <p>Index 509</p>

<p><b>ALEX CAPRI </b> is an American writer, based in Singapore, where he teaches business and public policy at the National University of Singapore.

<p><b>An essential book on the power-multiplying dynamics of technology and the fate of nations</b> <p>Picture a world where governments deploy autonomous drones to the oceans’ depths to defend undersea fibre optic cable networks — the backbone of the Internet — from espionage and sabotage. <p>In the skies above, government-funded constellations of low earth orbit (LEO) satellites, numbering in the tens of thousands, beam wireless Internet to the world’s most remote regions while simultaneously tracking the flight of hypersonic missiles. <p>Meanwhile, in cyberspace, diplomats and spies unleash artificial intelligence (AI) to engage in narrative wars and influence campaigns, using deepfakes and sophisticated algorithms to affect political and social outcomes. <p>These are some of the elements of <i>Techno-Nationalism</i>, which holds that a nation’s economic strength and its national security — even its social stability— is linked to the technological prowess of its leading tech companies, universities and government institutions. <p>Great power competition between America and China has spawned a fierce innovation race involving the most critical twenty-first century technologies, from advanced materials, AI, and biotech to nano-scale manufacturing and quantum science. At the heart of it all are semiconductors — the ultimate foundational technology and power-multiplier. <p>This book is essential reading for anyone who needs to understand the full impact of a technology-oriented cold war, across the international landscape.

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